Diary

Geomagnetic conditions remain unsettled due to the influence of a medium-sized coronal hole on Earth. The primary factor affecting Earth's magnetic field is elevated solar wind speed, currently around 600 km/s (approximately 50% above normal). While this is insufficient to trigger a severe storm, it was enough to cause G1-level events over the past day. There are currently no signs of geomagnetic activity subsiding. Forecasts suggest that isolated spikes in disturbance may persist for another 2–3 days—through Friday—but are unlikely to exceed the current low-intensity level.

At the same time, a moderate increase in flare activity is being observed at the Sun's eastern limb, where a new, energy-rich sunspot group is rotating into view from the far side. The spots themselves are not yet visible from Earth, though images have been received from the *Solar Orbiter* spacecraft, which is currently observing the Sun from a side-on perspective. Data indicates this is a medium-sized group, so no spectacular events are expected. In any case, from their current position at the limb, they cannot affect Earth—even if they were half the size of the Sun—and it will take another five days for them to rotate into a position where they could impact our planet. We still have to get through that intervening period. Thus, there are currently no visible global factors likely to complicate the situation on Earth right now.

Moderate to weak auroral activity was observed yesterday. The most intense phase occurred between 07:00 PM and 08:00 PM UTC; images can be found online.

For today, the probability of strong M- or X-class flares is approximately 40%. The likelihood of weak-to-moderate magnetic storms and disturbances is around 86%. Overall, the day is expected to be quite unsettled.