Strong solar flares have resumed

Following yesterday's unexpected resumption of solar activity, the Sun experienced its first strong M-level flares since January 21st. These are events that immediately precede the highest X-level flares. Three such flares were already recorded between 5 and 8 a.m. Moscow time. The trend reversal occurred completely unexpectedly. By all indications, the Sun was entering a deep depression lasting up to a month or more. In the last week of January, sunspots and coronal holes almost completely disappeared, X-ray fluxes decreased by a factor of 5-6 compared to mid-month, and the overall activity index dropped to around 1 in 10, with bets being placed on when it would break zero. All of this, taken as a whole, fit the picture of a complete solar abruption following a very strong flare in mid-January and the associated long recovery period.

The star's change from mercy to wrath completely unexpectedly and without any warning. A rapid increase in activity began yesterday and was primarily associated with large sunspot group No. 4366, which began growing rapidly on the last day of January in the northeastern portion of the solar disk. Against this backdrop, the rate of solar flares increased explosively: 21 flares yesterday alone, compared to seven flares the day before and only two flares in the 24 hours of January 29. This morning, as already noted, the flare threshold exceeded the M level, which separates strong events from ordinary ones (M flares are, on average, 10 times stronger than ordinary C-category flares), and the Sun will almost certainly begin to attempt to break through the X-level threshold during the course of today and tomorrow.

Currently, this activity is not affecting Earth. The planet has approximately two days until sunspot group No. 4366 enters its zone of influence, meaning it moves closer to the visible center of the solar disk. Currently, the question of solar activity levels over the next 10 days, in addition to the usual risks, could alter the launch schedule for the Artemis SLS lunar lander. Currently, however, the launch date has been pushed back from the initially optimistic February 6th to at least February 8th due to weather conditions in Florida, where the Kennedy Space Center is located. It is possible that solar activity will stabilize by then, and the associated threats to the lunar mission, which requires the spacecraft to leave the protection of Earth's magnetic field, will return to normal levels.