A moderate magnetic storm is expected today, Sunday.
Today, Sunday, August 2, a medium-sized plasma cloud is expected to reach Earth, likely triggering August's first magnetic storm. As the attached model shows, this is a borderline event: the ejection is clearly directed away from the planet (visible as a green dot on the right), but calculations suggest its edge will graze Earth. While such cases are usually a toss-up, the odds of a direct hit are significantly higher here than the odds of missing. First, coronagraph images clearly showed a portion of the plasma heading straight toward the observer. Furthermore, heavy particles (high-energy protons) reached Earth overnight on July 30–31, causing a minor radiation storm. Typically, the ejection front—which accelerates these protons in the first place—arrives shortly after the particles.
The solar flare that triggered the ejection occurred on Thursday evening (July 30) and was classified as M1.9. X-ray monitors experienced a five-hour outage at that exact moment, resulting in a gap in the data graphs for several days, though the data has now been restored. Those who were rightly frustrated by this—or even spun conspiracy theories—can finally see the event for themselves.
