Diary

The forecast for a geomagnetic storm during the night from Friday to Saturday — less than 24 hours from now — is confirmed. The estimated start time has shifted slightly to around midnight UTC; however, the event could actually begin several hours earlier or later. It all depends on exactly when Earth, in its orbital path, encounters the stream of plasma emanating from a solar coronal hole. This hole is quite large and well-defined — one of the most significant seen recently — and is clearly visible in the incoming imagery (one such image is attached to this post). As always, you can monitor solar wind speed and density on the relevant page of our website.

The prominence eruption that occurred yesterday was directed well off to the side and will not affect Earth. As previously reported, the planet Mars lies directly in its path; the material will reach Mars by the middle of next week, though by then, it will have lost a great deal of its density and velocity. While Mars lacks a global magnetic field, it does possess an atmosphere — albeit a thin one — which will help dissipate the incoming plasma. Any interaction with Earth is ruled out.

Solar flare activity remains at zero. The last solar flare was recorded on Wednesday morning; there have been none since — neither yesterday nor today. For comparison, there were eight flares in a single 24-hour period last Friday, marking a significant contrast. There are absolutely no signs of any factors that might change this situation, so it is quite possible that this current lull could persist for some time. For those who miss the explosive activity on the Sun, one can only hope that our star still has some surprises in store.