Diary

Solar Activity

There is a noticeable decline in the frequency and intensity of solar flares. The active region appears to be running out of steam. About 20 flares were recorded over the past 24 hours—a decline that, while not abrupt, is certainly perceptible. Furthermore, it seems that the sunspot group has begun to gradually break apart. Although high probabilities for X-class (the most powerful) flares are still being forecast, it seems increasingly unlikely in practical terms. Objectively, the strongest flares observed so far have reached the M2 level—roughly one-fifth the threshold for an X-class event.
The active center has crossed the Sun-Earth line and is currently moving toward the western limb. It will remain visible from Earth until Sunday, November 15, but will likely retain the potential to affect our planet for only another 1–2 days. Beyond that, any flares occurring there will be of interest primarily for their visual appeal rather than their impact.

Geomagnetic Activity

Earth is gradually moving out of the influence of a coronal hole. Solar wind speeds have been decreasing over the last 24 hours, though they remain high at approximately 700 km/s. The temperature also remains notably elevated—about twice the norm. Other parameters, such as plasma density and magnetic field induction, have returned to normal levels. Forecasts indicate that geomagnetic indices will not return to the "yellow" or "red" alert zones, meaning this particular event can be considered over. Indices may remain slightly elevated for another day or two, but they will stay within the "green" (stable) range.

Brief Conclusion

Space weather is stabilizing. The likelihood of further geomagnetic disturbances is low. While there remains a risk of large flares that could alter the situation, that risk is significantly lower today than it was yesterday. The risks can be completely eliminated in about 2 days.