Diary

Since yesterday evening, an increase in solar flare activity has been observed on the Sun. While there have been no truly massive events yet, a clear series of flares is developing, with a significant cumulative output. The activity index has risen from 2 to 5 on a 10-point scale over the past 24 hours, placing it currently in the "orange" zone.

This series of flares began yesterday with an M3.6-class event — the strongest since October 10. It originated from sunspot group 4566, which is currently the largest on the Sun and belongs to the most complex category, Beta-Gamma-Delta. Contrary to expectations, the subsequent flares were unrelated to this region. Since this morning, flares have been erupting from beyond the Sun’s eastern horizon, suggesting the arrival of another active region. It is not yet clear exactly what lies there; if it contains large sunspots, it will likely take a couple of days before they can be observed in detail.

With two major active regions now present, there is significant potential for solar activity to climb well above its recent low levels. If this new region emerging from the horizon proves substantial, the first half of the coming week could turn out to be far more active than anticipated.

Regarding geomagnetic activity, the forecast for magnetic storms remains in effect, with onset expected within the next 24 hours—overnight from Friday to Saturday. These are currently projected to reach the G1 (minor) level. The storms are driven by a large coronal hole—one of the most extensive seen this year—impacting Earth. Due to the unusual size of this structure, the period of geomagnetic disturbance could be quite prolonged, lasting anywhere from 5 to 7 days. Throughout this time, conditions will remain moderately stormy; specifically, further geomagnetic activity is expected as early as Sunday, November 8. For now, we are looking at minor to moderate events; however, if a cycle of flare activity were to ramp up on the Sun—alongside the existing coronal hole—these storms could easily escalate into the "strong" or even "very strong" category.

In short, we must wait for the planet to enter the stream of fast solar wind emanating from the coronal hole and observe how the magnetic field handles this external pressure. After that, it will simply be a matter of tracking the trajectory of flare activity—whether it trends upward or downward. It is likely that the overall trend will become clear within the next 1–2 days.