Space weather on October 26, 2026
The geomagnetic situation over the past weekend has completely stabilized, with a significant margin of calm. The last minor disturbances—lingering effects from events earlier in the week—were observed on Friday. Both Saturday and Sunday were entirely "green" (quiet), and the forecast for the next couple of days remains in the same category. In short, no complex calculations are needed to reach this conclusion: there are currently no active factors on the Sun capable of affecting Earth.
Around Wednesday, October 28, Earth is expected to enter the influence zone of another coronal hole, which can be seen in incoming imagery to the left of the Sun’s center, near the equator. Consequently, a new wave of disturbances is anticipated for Thursday and Friday, though the probability of reaching the threshold for a geomagnetic storm is currently considered low. Solar wind speeds are projected to peak at around 600 km/s—roughly 50% above the norm—which is generally insufficient to trigger a "red" (active/storm) level. A precise mathematical forecast is not yet available but should be ready within the next day or two.
Solar flare activity, which had plummeted as the primary active regions rotated onto the far side of the Sun, has shown a slight recovery. This is due to a couple of new active regions emerging from the far side into view on the left. These regions are visible in the attached image as bright clusters of plasma loops. However, they are extremely weak and do not even contain sunspots; in current imagery, the Sun’s surface appears entirely clear. For this reason, it would come as no surprise if the active regions were to disappear within a couple of days, and flare activity finally dropped to zero—a state it has been inching toward for the past two weeks, only to be held back each time by some factor.
Overall, the Sun continues to appear much calmer than one might expect at this stage of the cycle. What this signifies—whether it is accumulating energy or, conversely, preparing to go dormant a couple of years ahead of schedule—remains unclear.