The Sun remains in a stagnant, mildly disturbed state—stubbornly resisting a drop to the absolute bottom, yet lacking the energy or momentum to increase its activity.
After a two-day wait, Earth has finally passed through a stream of disturbed solar wind. Geomagnetic indices began to rise on the morning of Tuesday, October 20, reaching the level of geomagnetic disturbance between 3:00 and 6:00 UTC today. This appears to have been the peak, and activity is now expected to decline. Last night, images of auroras even began circulating online — though, in this instance, they were more a matter of artistic photography than significant space weather.
Images of the Sun from space reveal that nearly all notable active regions are currently concentrated on the right side of the solar disk, which will rotate out of view in a few days. On the left, where new active centers from the far side should be emerging, nothing is appearing to take their place. Consequently, barring any sudden changes, solar activity is likely to naturally return to the low levels seen over the past two months by the end of the week. No solar flares have been recorded in the first 12 hours of today — a sharp contrast to the nine flares observed yesterday — suggesting that this decline is already underway.
The far side of the Sun, which is currently almost entirely hidden from view, remains something of a mystery. The only satellite that periodically captures images of that side — the European Solar Orbiter — is currently positioned on the near side of its orbit, observing much the same view as Earth. While surprises remain possible, it is likely that if any truly powerful explosions were occurring on the far side, we would be aware of them. It’s worth noting that November was a very active month last year. So, let’s not write off autumn just yet, even though there are no clear, objective grounds for an increase in activity. A period of heightened activity is expected in the coming days. Do not believe reports claiming that a "giant magnetic storm" is set to strike Earth.