A preliminary trajectory calculation has emerged for the bright fireball observed in northwestern Russia on the evening of October 21. The object, entering from space, followed a path roughly as shown in the diagram. It traveled through the atmosphere north of Vologda, Yaroslavl, and Cherepovets, and south of Arkhangelsk. Based on calculations, the point of disintegration was approximately 500 km from Yaroslavl—a location from which the fireball was clearly visible—suggesting the object may have been larger than initially thought, with a diameter ranging from half a meter to a meter. Near Plesetsk and Mirny, the fireball would have appeared near the zenith, or at the very least, high above the horizon. It likely disintegrated somewhere in the vicinity of Kargopol, Nayadoma, and Shelokhovskaya; residents in these areas might have heard the resulting impacts.
Given its flight path, the remnants of the meteorite may have ended up in Lake Onega.