Powerful solar flares posing a threat to Earth have resumed.
A rapid surge in solar activity has been observed since approximately midnight Moscow time. A large active region (catalog number 4513) has suddenly awakened; it is currently situated right in the center of the visible solar disk—a position from which direct impacts on Earth are possible. The corresponding sunspot group had been observed for about a week but showed limited activity in recent days and was considered "spent"—deemed a dead region that had exhausted its energy. However, a series of powerful explosions that began today has disproven that assessment.
Since the start of the day, three strong M-class flares (category 4 on a 5-point scale) have been recorded, with magnitudes ranging from M1.7 to M1.9. Prior to today, only four such events had occurred in August, meaning the total count has nearly doubled in just the last few hours. While there are no immediate forecasts yet regarding plasma ejections directed at Earth or associated geomagnetic storms (the situation is currently being analyzed), the risk to Earth is among the highest seen in recent months, as a "miss" from this specific angle is virtually impossible. It should be noted that there have been no flares of the highest magnitude so far, so there is no question of breaking historical records. The situation is significant when viewed over a timeframe of two to three months, but not on an annual or multi-year scale.
Today will be the most critical day, as it will reveal whether this surge in activity is merely a brief, isolated episode or the beginning of an escalating trend.