RUS

Diary

Three clouds from the Sun are hurtling toward Earth all at once.

Movement of coronal mass ejections toward Earth — WSA/ENLIL model

Three plasma clouds ejected toward the planet are currently hurtling toward Earth, according to the latest observational data and predictive models. The first cloud — ejected back on Tuesday, October 6, during an M1.4-class solar flare — is set to arrive today after 15:00 UTC, triggering G2-level magnetic storms and likely sparking intense auroras at latitudes of 55–60 degrees and higher. The other two clouds, which left the Sun a day apart on October 7 and 8 (the second following yesterday's strongest flare of the autumn), are forecast to merge into a single structure en route to Earth and strike the planet simultaneously around midday Sunday. A second storm, also at the G2 level, is preliminarily forecast for that time.

Overall, solar and geomagnetic activity in early October shows a marked increase compared to the exceptionally quiet first month of autumn. However, it is premature to assume this trend will persist throughout the coming month. Current activity is erratic and uneven, resembling the burning off of randomly acquired energy reserves rather than a systematic recovery from a low point. The fact that yesterday saw the strongest flare recorded since August does not alter this assessment; the event was preceded by a nearly day-long lull in flare activity, allowing energy to accumulate. The size of the new sunspot groups on the star — which triggered the current series of flares— has stabilized at moderate levels; unless new growth potential emerges today or tomorrow, the sunspots will likely begin to dissipate. In this scenario, the two anticipated impacts on Earth will serve as the final closing chord, after which solar activity will once again plummet to rock bottom.