A new, beautiful solar flare is likely to be the first event to impact Earth.

It appears the time for "free" viewing of beautiful explosions on the Sun is running out. Active centers, producing beautiful fireworks, have been quietly moving toward the Sun-Earth line all this time, and the first of them, region 4274, appears to have crossed the line today, beyond which viewing fees will begin. About an hour and a half ago, at 2:19 PM, an M7.4 flare was registered here (it was about 30% short of magnitude X), which is guaranteed to impact Earth. Strictly speaking, there's no model yet, and there's not even any data from coronagraphs, but the overall data suggests that the plasma cloud will pass the planet edgewise this time on the night from Friday to Saturday.

The dense central parts of the flare emissions are still pointed past Earth, so we're talking about a moderate edge impact. A direct frontal approach from the plasma clouds will only be possible starting Friday or Saturday, not earlier than in 2-3 days. Therefore, the question of what level of flare activity will be by that time is of practical importance. There's no answer yet. With the exception of a young active center, currently hidden behind the Sun's edge, which produced an X1.1 flare this morning, both centers on the visible side are old and should have fizzled out a week ago. But they haven't yet. Overall, given that their lifespans have already reached almost a month, the likelihood that they will begin to decay in the next 2-3 days seems small. So, Earth's magnetosphere will likely have to confirm its protective performance characteristics by the end of the week.