CONFIRMED: Solar plasma ejection will hit Earth on Friday, November 7

Mathematical modeling and visual inspection confirm the arrival of a large solar plasma ejection towards Earth on Friday, November 7, from the M7.4 flare that occurred today in the afternoon, around 2:00 PM Moscow time. In total, three strong solar flares have been recorded over the past 24 hours, including two events of the highest magnitude X — the first since mid-June of this year. The surge in solar activity was the result of several large sunspot groups appearing on the visible side of the Earth. These high explosive activity was detected while they were still on the far side of the Sun.

Beginning in June, there was a certain decline in solar activity, during which the main geomagnetic disturbances were generated by coronal holes—large structures that increase the speed of the solar wind but generally do not produce strong magnetic storms. In the coming days, the magnetosphere will likely have to recall its protective and shielding properties, partly forgotten in the face of this. Today's event is presumably only the first in a series of large explosions predicted for the next 2-3 days. The global forecast for the end of this week and the beginning of next week looks very unfavorable. The eastern edge of the Sun is currently home to several activity centers, which are moving from the edge closer to the center of the solar disk with each passing day. Consequently, their potential to influence Earth is only increasing with each passing day. In this situation, it's difficult to predict when the risks to Earth will be completely removed. It's highly likely that this will happen no earlier than the end of next week, or 10 days from now. However, there remains hope that the Sun will simply run out of flare energy, whose reserves, no matter how large, are always finite. In fact, this is the only thing that currently allows us to draw even the most optimistic scenarios for the medium term. This, however, does not affect the forecast for the next two days in any way. On Friday, we will observe how the Earth's magnetic field battles solar plasma. A forecast for geomagnetic storms, which are inevitable in this situation, will be released tomorrow morning. Preliminary models indicate G3-G4 events, ranging from strong to very strong. The probability of storms of the highest 5th level is not currently visible.

The preliminary time of arrival of the ejection to Earth is November 7, 2025, at 12 o'clock Moscow time.

The video shows the calculated movement of the plasma. The left panel is a top view of the plane of the planets; the Earth is the green circle. The right panel is a side view of the Earth.

Additional video - the movement of the coronal mass ejection towards Earth (towards the observer). In simple terms, here you can see an inflating bubble of plasma flying towards your face.