Current geomagnetic conditions

As of 8:00 PM Moscow time, spaceborne tracking devices have not detected the arrival of two plasma clouds toward Earth. Their ejection from the Sun was observed after two strong solar flares that occurred in the second half of November 5 and on the night of November 6. The WSA ENLIL model (the world's leading tool for calculating and forecasting solar wind motion and mass ejections) has analyzed these events and predicted an exceptionally strong impact on Earth today, Friday, November 7, which should be further aggravated by the impact of fast solar wind from a large coronal hole.

The predicted impact on Earth from the coronal hole was recorded early in the morning and resulted in an increase in solar wind speed to values ranging from 750 to 850 km s-1, accompanied by G1-G2 magnetic storms. As of the end of the day, wind speed remained at approximately the same high level, but the hole's independent potential for influencing Earth has largely been exhausted. The reason for the lack of plasma cloud arrival remains unclear. With large plasma ejections reaching speeds of approximately 800 km s-1, their typical transit time from the Sun to Earth is 52 hours. As of 8:00 PM Moscow time, the first ejection had traveled 53 hours; for the second, 43 hours. Both of these estimates still suggest both a nighttime arrival and (at least for the first event) a planet-skipping passage.

No other conclusions can be drawn at this time. The plasma structures are currently in a fundamentally unobservable position and could either emerge 1.5 million kilometers from Earth (where the first satellites would detect them) at any moment, or quietly pass unnoticed several million kilometers to the east. A final decision in favor of the second option will likely only be made in the morning, when the European part of the country and the continent begins to awaken. Until then, the risks cannot be eliminated.

It can be noted that the plasma cloud's later arrival means lower velocities than predicted, which often (though not always) reduces its geomagnetic impact. In this sense, the forecast for a very strong storm, based precisely on exceptionally high model estimates of plasma velocity, may prove irrelevant.