Solar activity is declining, but the likelihood of strong flares remains

For the second day running, solar flare activity has been rapidly declining, peaking between December 8th and 10th. Over these three days, solar observing instruments recorded approximately 70 flares, including 15 mid-class M events and one high-class X flare at the very beginning of this period, on the night of December 7th and 8th. On the 11th (yesterday), only 12 flares occurred, including one M event. Today, during the first half of the day Moscow time, only five events were recorded.

The increased flare activity is attracting attention both due to objective circumstances—the largest sunspot complex of the year has formed on the Sun, capable of producing very powerful events—and because the interstellar visitor 3I/ATLAS is currently passing directly across major active centers. Although the object is approximately 300 million kilometers from the Sun, plasma ejections easily travel such distances, reaching even Mars (where they are directly detected by orbiters) and Jupiter after flares.

In any case, as already noted, the probability of strong solar events has currently decreased, although they continue to occur. Specifically, another M2.0 flare was recorded today around 9:00 AM Moscow time. For those concerned about the fate of 3I/ATLAS, it will remain within the solar active center zone until approximately the end of tomorrow. Only high-class X events can be truly significant at this distance from the Sun.