A strong magnetic storm is expected on Thursday, March 19.

A more or less finalized calculation model for the solar flare and mass ejection that occurred yesterday has been developed, yielding a fairly plausible result. The average estimated velocity of the plasma cloud ejected toward Earth is approximately 670 km/s. It will take the plasma just over 60 hours to transit from the Sun to Earth. Taking into account the formation time of yesterday's flare (approximately 3:00 PM Moscow time), the arrival of the mass ejected material at the planet is expected on Thursday, March 19, 2026, between 4:00 and 6:00 AM.

The estimated storm strength at its peak is G2 to G3 (strong). The probability of a higher G4 value is only 1-3% (the initial M2.8 flare was not powerful enough to reach such altitudes). The storm itself is expected to be relatively short—about 10 hours—due again to the limited strength of the initial event.

The ejection velocity appears somewhat underestimated, so the plasma's arrival remains likely several hours earlier than predicted.