Geomagnetic indices remain at an elevated level; the magnetosphere is under pressure from a dense, high-speed stream of solar wind originating from another coronal hole on the Sun. While the geomagnetic field has not yet reached the threshold of a full-blown magnetic storm, it has crossed the Kp = 4 mark — the boundary between a calm ("green") state and a disturbed state — a couple of times over the past 24 hours.
Yesterday evening and throughout the night—roughly between 8:00 PM and midnight Moscow time—faint brightenings of the auroral oval were observed, primarily at latitudes of 60° and above. The auroral index peaked at 5 out of 10, which is a fairly notable level.
At present, the disturbances are subsiding. The geomagnetic field is expected to return completely to normal by the second half of the day.
Solar flare activity is slightly elevated. A small prominence eruption was recorded yesterday, and current projections indicate a significant probability that it will reach Earth. Consequently, we may see another minor deterioration in geomagnetic conditions this Saturday and Sunday. While no magnetic storms are currently forecast, the situation could reach a "yellow" (disturbed) level.
Also of note is the emergence of a new active region on the Sun’s eastern (left) limb, visible as bright plasma loops rising above the horizon. Just yesterday, this area was empty, and it seemed as though solar activity might drop to zero; that now appears unlikely, and the Sun will, at the very least, continue to show some low-level activity. It remains unclear what the upper limit of this activity might be, as the new group is not currently exhibiting any significant intensity. We will monitor its development over the coming 24 hours.
