Weak magnetic storms are expected starting Wednesday
Against the backdrop of the unusually low geomagnetic activity of this summer, at least some “entertainment” is expected in two days - another solar coronal hole is approaching the Earth, a stream of fast wind from which will reach the planet on July 22. Typically, coronal holes are relatively compact objects, which leaves uncertainty until the end: whether the wind will pass above or below the planet. In this case, the Sun decided not to torment the forecasters and “drew” a hole from pole to pole, so you definitely won’t pass by. Under such conditions, a meeting with a stream of disturbed plasma is apparently inevitable, and one can only discuss how soon it will happen, what the duration will be and what level the storm will reach.
The current answers to these questions are on the graph. An increase in disturbances is expected on the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, will last at least a day, and at the peak storms of the G1–G2 level (weak and medium) may form. The chance of severe storms G3 and above is about 5%.
In order not to write a separate message, let's say that there are, in fact, no flares on the Sun, although attempts to push off from the bottom have been visible since yesterday, and there is a possibility that this will succeed. But if the flashes are all still hypothetical scenarios, then the hole is real and visible, so for now we’ll keep an eye on it. If flare activity begins to increase, we will issue a separate message.
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