Diary

Solar Activity

It appears that active region 4566 has finally exhausted its remaining energy and given up. The flare activity chart for today shows a smooth curve with no spikes. Its last attempt to make a statement occurred yesterday, when the active center unexpectedly unleashed a series of 15 flares. This sequence concluded around 1:00 AM Moscow time today; since then, there has not been a single flare on the Sun for about 8 hours. While it could potentially be a musical piece with a "false ending," it looks much more like the final curtain. The primary forecast is for flare activity to drop completely to zero over the next 1–2 days.

Geomagnetic Activity

The situation here is much simpler. For the fifth consecutive day, the charts have consistently shown green bars, indicating a calm state. Residual disturbances in the solar wind and Earth’s magnetic field—left over from the most recent coronal hole—are gradually subsiding, and geomagnetic indices are trending downward. In fact, at the time of writing, they have already reached zero. With a bit of imagination—or perhaps without even needing much—one can discern a new coronal hole on the Sun; however, given its current geometry and size, it is unlikely to trigger any significant activity. Models predict only minor disturbances from this hole on Tuesday, November 17.

Brief Conclusion

The Sun shows a complete depletion of its flare-producing energy. In the first third of the day, only one weak flare has occurred—a sharp contrast to the 20–30 events per day seen less than a week ago. The geomagnetic field is also entirely stable, with indices hovering near zero. The green-level geomagnetic sequence may be briefly interrupted on Tuesday, November 17, due to another small coronal hole. Minor disturbances (yellow level) are forecast.