The main centers of solar activity have reached the Sun-Earth line

The main solar activity centers, which have been moving with the Sun's rotation for the past week from the left eastern edge, where they emerged in late October, toward the central regions, have reached them and will have the potential to exert their maximum influence on Earth in the next 2-3 days.

Among these regions, sunspot group 4274 stands out for its size, also displaying the most intense flare activity, and has been for over a month. This center emerged on the Sun in mid-October, producing over 100 flares, then moved to the opposite side, where it generated several X-ray explosions. It returned to Earth, produced several dozen more flares upon its return, including some of the X-ray magnitude, and is now once again observed directly opposite Earth, fully alert, as if it had never left. It must be said that sunspot groups rarely complete a full solar rotation, and such vitality is impressive, despite the associated challenges—all geomagnetic events of recent days have responded to activity in 4274.

The current flare regime in this center is still favorable for Earth. The region is spamming small and medium flares en masse, preferring to expend its energy reserves on numerous smaller events. This isn't to say that this is completely unnoticeable for Earth—the magnetic storm forecast for the next three days is heavily tinted yellow and red, but these are still only small and medium storms. Just two or three days ago, energy was released here in a completely different pattern, with two or three large flares per day. A number of events of level X and close to it occurred then, so the center's evolution is clearly moving in a favorable direction in terms of minimizing geomagnetic consequences. On the downside, the overall energy release rate in the observed small flares appears significantly insufficient for a sunspot group of this size. So, there's a sense that the bulk of the energy is still accumulating, and the region could very well make history—a major explosion directly opposite Earth would practically guarantee that. The remaining centers appear harmless and don't claim to be more than just a catalog entry.

4274 will remain in the risk zone until Tuesday, November 11. During this period, concern will likely arise from flares of M5 level upwards. It's best to simply ignore the possibility of strong X-level flares, although even then, there will likely be some sort of contingency plan.