A magnetic storm of G4.7 magnitude is occurring on Earth.

A very strong planetary-scale magnetic storm, nearly reaching the highest level of G5, is currently being recorded by geomagnetic monitoring equipment due to the arrival of the first of three plasma clouds expected today, amid the extreme increase in flare activity in recent days. The current event level is G4.66, just 1/3 short of the highest level.

The geomagnetic situation currently appears inexplicably different from the forecast. Only the first, weakest of the three expected plasma ejections was expected to reach the planet overnight, triggering weak G1-G2 storms. The main peak of the impact was and remains forecast for midday. The only explanation is that the last-moving plasma cloud from yesterday's strongest X5.1 flare of the year, due to its measured record speeds, has already caught up with the slower-moving plasma clouds ahead and is now pushing and compressing them, sharply increasing their temperature, density, and magnetic properties.

Spacecraft operating near Earth and measuring solar wind parameters have unfortunately been transmitting severely distorted data in recent hours. For an unknown reason, NOAA has replaced its primary solar wind measuring satellite, ACE, with the backup DSCOVR, which is operating very unstable and is currently experiencing numerous malfunctions. From the incoming "broken" data, one can only deduce that exceptionally high plasma densities and temperatures, tens of times higher than normal, are being recorded near Earth, as well as very high magnetic field induction values, near historical peaks.

Since the plasma velocity remains within "reasonable" limits against this background, we can conclude that the main plasma ejection from the X5.1 flare has not yet reached the planet (this would be simply impossible, and would mean its velocity exceeds the Carrington event velocity), and we are dealing with truly distorted and amplified parameters of only the first of the expected events.

At the moment, we remain hopeful that only the parameters of the frontal plasma structures are at the observed extreme level, and that the intensity of the impact on Earth will at least decrease slightly. A 24-hour forecast is essentially unavailable. We wrote yesterday that current models are unable to accurately predict such extreme events. All that remains is to wait for the impact of the main of the three solar ejections within 24 hours, and while we wait, we can also expect at least some intermediate decrease in impact in the coming hours.