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11 november 2025, 20:51 мск

A mathematical model predicts the strongest impact on Earth in the current solar cycle tomorrow.

Calculation of the mass ejection rate following the X5.2 flare on November 11, 2025

It's difficult to add anything to the research results. All the morning discussions about the arrival of two new X-level flares on Earth, which seemed so significant and important, have lost their relevance. All the clouds of human brains currently hurtling toward the planet will overtake and engulf the ejecta from today's bag. The impact on Earth will dominate tomorrow, and, according to the model, it will be the most important in the current 25th solar cycle.

For those not accustomed to "reading" the ENLIL model: the left view is from above, looking down on the planet's plane; the right view is from the front, along the Sun-Earth axis. You can see how the "terrible" X-flare ejecta, which occurred the day before yesterday, was the first to reach Earth. Then you can see how easily it will be overtaken by the "even more terrifying" ejecta from yesterday's X-hand. And then both are simply devoured by today's event.

But, on the other hand, this is just a model. We'll see. Visually, it still noticeably radiates relative to the planet.

For those unfamiliar with solar physics, it's important to understand that the most powerful event in Cycle 25 doesn't necessarily mean the most powerful event in history. Specifically, on October 31, 2003, Earth experienced a direct impact through the neck of an X17. In this case, we're talking about an X5 event.

UPDATE
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the world's leading space weather center, has just officially published its own calculation of the motion characteristics of tomorrow's expected mass ejection. The calculation fully confirms the published extreme characteristics of tomorrow's event, which are record-breaking in solar cycle 25.

The agency allows for earlier ejections to arrive several hours ahead of the main impact, meaning as early as this evening.

NOAA calculation - link.

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Laboratory of Solar Astronomy,SRI RAS

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