Reflections on the consequences for the Earth after yesterday's second strongest solar flare of the year have resumed.

The arrival of a complete set of data from space-based coronagraphs has revived discussions about the possibility of yesterday's plasma ejection impacting Earth following the second-strongest flare of the year, X4.0. This was prompted, on the one hand, by the flare's time profile, which appears to show a superposition of two events, as well as the aforementioned coronagraph data attached to the announcement, which, in addition to a dense ejection moving sideways, reveals a second, less contrasting but much faster gas cloud hurtling toward the observer.

A recalculation taking these circumstances into account yields a significantly less optimistic picture than the one announced yesterday: the model suggests the possibility of the identified second velocity component reaching Earth as early as tonight.

Against this backdrop (the presence of several conflicting calculation lines), there is currently strong disagreement among global space weather centers regarding the final line. Adding to the uncertainty is the previous behavior of region 4274, which has already shown illogical behavior twice: first on November 7, when two ejections, visually heading straight for Earth, ended up veering off to the side and only grazing the planet, and on November 12-13, when a magnetic storm, although the second most powerful in five years, followed a scenario completely different from the forecast.

At this point, we can only note the existence of diametrically opposed views on the consequences of the flare. Both forecasts—yesterday's neutral one and the new one with an impact on Earth—are presented on the channel. At the moment, the probability of a weak event still dominates in the calculations, which, however, given the previous tendencies of 4274 to select the least probable branches of the forecast, is more alarming than encouraging.