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14 november 2025, 19:09 мск

The plasma ejection from today's second-strongest X4.0 flare of the year will miss Earth.

Simulation of plasma ejection velocity after the X4.0 solar flare of November 14, 2025

As initially predicted, region 4274 is currently in a safe position for Earth, with a strong angular displacement, and despite the high magnitude of today's flare, the second of the year, it will not have any impact on the planet. This latest plasma cloud, the fourth in just a few days, is passing by Earth. The situation in which strong solar events prove completely neutral is generally common. Major flares near the Sun-Earth line, such as the recent events of November 9-11, are more likely to be considered exceptions. In particular, the largest flare of the 21st century, which occurred on November 4, 2003, did not cause any consequences on Earth at the time, as it occurred at the edge (and even partially beyond the edge) of the Sun.

At the moment, region 4274 can be monitored solely with scientific and purely human curiosity—whether the energy here will ever run out or not. Of course, the question of practical significance is also whether it will disappear forever below the solar horizon or reappear on the eastern left edge of the Sun in early December, only to pass opposite the planet again a week later, for the third time.

This time, Jupiter is directly in the path of the plasma cloud. Incidentally, auroras may well be visible there in a few days. In fact, they are occasionally observed there.

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Laboratory of Solar Astronomy,SRI RAS

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