Sunspot group 4294 is the second largest in the last 10 years.

A giant sunspot complex consisting of three groups—4294, 4296, and 4298—that appeared several days ago on the southeastern edge of the Sun continues to break records. The total area of the complex, which, despite its artificial division into three numbers in the catalog, physically represents a single structure, exceeded 2000 units this morning, reaching 2200 units. This is already approaching record values observed only a handful of times in the 21st century. For comparison, the area of sunspot group No. 486, which produced the largest series of flares of this century in October-November 2003, was 2600 units.

The central group of the complex, number 4294, measured an area of 1450 units this morning, making it the second-largest individual group observed on the Sun since 2015. A larger active region, numbered 3664, was observed only once during this period, in May 2024. It was then that it caused the strongest magnetic storm in 20 years.

The main mystery against this backdrop remains the inexplicably low level of observed solar activity. The solar flare graph following yesterday's X-burst, to which this sunspot complex has no connection, stubbornly continues to draw a straight line. It should be noted that the basic physics of solar flares is based on very simple principles. Flares are simply a way for the solar atmosphere to get rid of excess energy accumulating in large active centers. Why this conventional mechanism fails in this case remains unclear. Either for some reason the region is not generating energy, which seems unlikely given its size, or this energy, as noted earlier, is currently actively accumulating. It should be noted that the complex's enormous size, as well as its relatively simple linear structure, should facilitate the formation of gigantic, stable electric currents, which are the primary mechanism for energy accumulation in the solar corona.

At this point, it can be noted that the sunspot complex is young and formed in its current size over the past three weeks, primarily while it was on the far side of the Sun. In mid-November, when this side of the Sun was facing Earth, the first, barely discernible spots were just beginning to appear. It can also be stated with a high degree of certainty that the complex has not yet produced a single major flare. While it was on the far side of the Sun, no signs of major explosions were observed in this part of the star. In this sense, the lack of strong flares in this group is broader than the problem of the last few days and likely applies to its entire existence. If the energy accumulation hypothesis is accepted, this leads to rather unpleasant conclusions.

There is essentially no forecast for the coming days. To put it simply, a "black swan" has formed on the Sun. The scenario of it continuing to sweep across the Sun, majestically and silently, as it appears now, and the scenario of a series of the largest flares in a decade, at the X10-X20 level, are equally likely and equally unpredictable. All that remains is to observe.