Some news at the moment

1. A rather drastic update to the forecast for tomorrow's expected magnetic storm has been made. The velocity for yesterday's plasma ejection (remember, it's directed frontally toward Earth) has been recalculated, and it turns out to be higher than previously estimated. Accordingly, the plasma arrival has been shifted forward by half a day and is expected not tomorrow at midday, but today at midnight. At the same time, due to the higher velocity, both the average level and the duration of the expected disturbances have been increased.

2. The plasma ejection after the X-level flare last night is passing by Earth. An animation of the model is available at the link. The explosion occurred in sunspot group 4298, which is significantly offset from the direction toward Earth by more than 50 degrees, so the calculated results are expected. An edge-on impact with the planet is still possible, but objectively, the event has almost zero geoeffectiveness.

3. A noticeable increase in solar activity has been observed overall since the morning. Three strong M-level flares and one X-level event have already been recorded since the beginning of the day. Among other things, it appears the first M-flare in 7 days occurred in the largest region of the year, 4294, which had previously been silent for 8 days: this is an M2.0 flare with a maximum at 01:36 UTC. In the overall game currently unfolding on the Sun, this event plays no role—events on the order of 10 are being played—but at least it shows that the energy reservoir there is not infinite, and after a week, steam from the boiler is finally beginning to find cracks.