Strong magnetic storms with a high probability of polar lights are forecast for December 9-10.

Magnetic storms of G2-G3 intensity (moderate to strong) are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, December 9th and 10th, as a result of a plasma ejection approaching Earth following an M8.1 flare that occurred last night. The flare was moderate in strength, but due to the explosion's center being located precisely on the Sun-Earth line, the impact on the planet is expected to be almost frontal, meaning it will occur with maximum effectiveness. Any factors that could mitigate the impact are simply absent in this case.

Despite the high frequency of solar flares, only a small fraction of them impact Earth. The last direct impact on the planet occurred on November 12th-13th, about a month ago, and caused a G4 magnetic storm. Furthermore, during this period, Earth was tangentially struck by a plasma cloud from an X-class flare observed on December 1st. The resulting magnetic storm peaked at a strength close to G3, approximately the same as that expected now.

Calculations indicate that the peak of the effect will occur in the afternoon of December 9, which, combined with the expected high geomagnetic indices, will create favorable conditions for the formation of auroras. It should be noted that winter is, on average, more favorable for observing this phenomenon due to the much darker skies and (especially in cold weather) good atmospheric transparency. However, the weather is currently mostly cloudy, so it would be overly optimistic to expect favorable conditions for observation. However, no one is stopping us from hoping for the best.

Geomagnetic storms and disturbances are expected to continue until Thursday.