The sun has created intrigue for the New Year

Contrary to all predictions, the Sun has managed to create intrigue for the New Year's holidays. While yesterday the chances of celebrating New Year's Eve under the northern lights were minimal, now, unexpectedly, the chances have increased. In recent days, the Sun has seen a noticeable increase in flare activity, but almost all active regions, except one, were located far from the Sun-Earth line, and no events in them, regardless of their strength, were capable of influencing space weather. The only active center, also located far away, but still within reach of Earth, was region 4317 in the Sun's northern hemisphere. And it was in this region that a series of flares occurred tonight, between 2:00 and 3:00 AM Moscow time, including two strong M-category flares. The first of the two strong events was recorded at 1:39 AM Moscow time (an M4.2 flare), and the second at 3:02 AM Moscow time (an M2.2 flare).

Modeling shows that the flares ejected a medium-sized plasma cloud into space, which would take approximately three days to travel from the Sun to Earth and could ultimately brush the planet on the nights of January 31st and 1st. The precise arrival time for such events is determined by modern models with an accuracy of 5-7 hours and could be anywhere within that range. The highest probability of auroras in the New Year's sky may be in the northwestern regions of the country: Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, the Republic of Karelia, the Leningrad Region, and St. Petersburg. The probability for the central part of the country is still low—the event is objectively of moderate strength, and, moreover, it still has a significant lateral movement. But on the other hand, everyone is supposed to perform miracles on New Year's Eve. Perhaps the Sun will also contribute to this.