Solar flares may resume around the New Year holidays

After approximately two weeks of calm, solar flare activity appears to be resuming. Over the past few days, two large active regions have been gradually and leisurely emerging into the line of sight from Earth on the left (eastern) edge of the Sun, detectable by bright magnetic loops rising from the horizon. The sunspots from which the loops "grow" are not yet visible (hidden by the edge of the Sun), but will appear in the field of view within 1-3 days. Calculations indicate that both active centers will be clearly visible on the eve of the New Year holidays, December 30-31.

Based on data analysis, sunspot complex 4294-4296-4298 (the largest this year) is returning to the southern hemisphere of the Sun (below the equator). It was opposite Earth during the first week of December and moved away on December 12-13. Within 24 hours, the first spots of this complex may appear on the edge of the Sun, and it will be possible to determine to what extent they have been affected (if at all) by the disruption processes clearly observed when the active center retreated to the far side. It is tentatively expected that the active center will have a significantly smaller area this time.

The identity of this group rising north of the equator is still unclear. Its coordinates precisely match the legendary region 4274, which, under different numbers, has already crossed the solar disk three times (in October, mid-November, and early December), managed to "battle" twice with comet 3I/ATLAS, produced two of the year's most powerful flares, and was also the cause of this year's most powerful magnetic storm. On the other hand, it is almost impossible to imagine that the active center is still alive and about to pass by Earth for a fourth time. This region, however, has a very characteristic signature—extended periods of energy accumulation and large, prolonged flares with powerful plasma emissions. If it's still her, we'll know the tree by its fruit.

For those who interpret the phrase "flares will resume" as "magnetic storms will resume," it's worth reminding once again that magnetic storms occur at a maximum of one in ten noticeable flares. So, even if the flare fireworks do peak on New Year's, there's a good chance they'll remain just that: fireworks. However, even if plasma ejections are directed toward Earth, celebrating New Year's Eve under the Northern Lights could be such a vivid experience that it will outweigh any potential negative geomagnetic consequences.