The level of solar activity has dropped to its lowest level in 3.5 years.

The average monthly sunspot number, which has been measured consistently since 1749 and is the primary indicator of solar activity, fell to 78.2 in the first two months of 2026. This is the lowest value since August 2022, when 74.6 was recorded. Higher indices were recorded in all subsequent months, and at the peak of the cycle, in August 2024, a value of 216 was reached, the highest in the last 20 years.

Currently, global solar activity is declining significantly faster than predicted. The predicted value for February was 114.8 (NOAA forecast). However, the average monthly sunspot number was not expected to consistently fall below 80 until mid-2027. For this reason, the February decline is currently considered a random fluctuation. A similar situation was observed in May 2025, when the cycle dropped sharply to 78.5 (very close to the current level), but then returned to the average predicted trajectory. The current month should be indicative in this regard. So far, the average value for the first 10 days of March has been 82, roughly in line with the low level seen in February.

Daily solar observations in recent weeks confirm its extremely weak activity. The star is registering a very low rate of flares, and there is a significant lack of energy for active processes. This process, as already noted, is currently considered temporary, but how long it will last and when the star will accumulate enough energy to push off the bottom is currently unknown.