Today marks the beginning of a long series of geomagnetic disturbances due to a coronal hole formed on the Sun.

The forecast predicts an increase in the speed of the solar wind flow approaching Earth within 24 hours. Geomagnetic indices should also begin to rise. The source of the expected disturbances is clearly visible on the Sun. It is a coronal hole of considerable size and an atypical shape—more like a giant rift extending from the Sun's south to north poles than the more familiar outlines of butterflies or circles (in fact, you see all sorts of things on the Sun). As in most such cases, the hole is a long-lived formation and, during the last solar orbit, it already crossed the disk a month ago, resembling a dragon. However, opinions on this last occurrence also differed.

During the previous passage, the event triggered moderate magnetic storms, in the G1-G2 range (on a 5-point scale). Since the shape and size of the structure have not changed significantly, it would not be a big mistake to expect a similar level this time. Models indicate the possibility of the first storms as early as tonight, around midnight. If this forecast comes true, the likelihood of intense auroras forming today is quite high, although we'll have to wait until the disturbances begin to speak with certainty. Currently, there are no signs of an increase in solar wind speed.

We'll update you as soon as wind parameters begin to increase.