The solar strike on Earth occurred under a mild scenario

A flare plasma from the Sun reached Earth at approximately 4:00 UT.

The measured plasma parameters are currently significantly lower than predicted. The velocity is particularly noticeable, hovering around 500 km/s, while models predicted an impact velocity exceeding 1,000 km/s. With these parameters, there's no reason to talk about a second or even third magnetic storm this year. Currently, the magnetosphere is completely oblivious to the impact and is holding steady in the green zone with a large margin of safety and without visible stress. The plasma cloud will likely eventually sway the magnetic field to the yellow level (geomagnetic disturbances), but anything more seems doubtful, especially given that the parameters are currently declining.

For those seeking a thrill, it's worth noting that according to some estimates (specifically, based on the low measured ejection velocity), plasma from only the first of three flares has reached Earth. Accordingly, the baseline scenario of the plasma clouds merging into one on their way to Earth turned out to be incorrect. In this case, the arrival of clouds #2 and #3, or at least one of them, is still possible today within a few hours.

In any case, yesterday's extreme forecasts will definitely no longer hold true. Updated calculations, which exclude the merger scenario, predict storm levels of no more than G1-G2. This is likely the maximum we can expect today, or at least the maximum we can fear—it depends on the individual.