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30 june 2026, 10:06 мск

There is a sharp increase in solar activity

Active regions 4478 (bottom) and 4479 (top) on the Sun on June 29-30, 2026

Ultimately, the Sun failed to defy the first law of dialectics, and quantity nevertheless began to transform into quality. Since yesterday, the star's flare spiral has begun to rapidly accelerate. In the past 24 hours, Moscow time, 17 flares have been recorded (the day before, there were 8, and the day before that, 5). This morning, the M-level threshold was reached (the first two such events occurred), and only the highest threshold, X, remains unconquered. The second-largest sunspot group of the year, No. 4366, observed in February, has recorded 5 high-class flares, including the largest flare of the year—X8.1. Against this backdrop, the fact that the largest region of the year, currently located directly opposite Earth, has not yet recorded a single such event seems more paradoxical than a rule. High-class explosions could begin at any time now.

Images coming from space show that two groups of sunspots, seemingly isolated formations on the surface, have found each other at the level of the corona and are now forming a single complex magnetic structure, actively exchanging energy through magnetic field lines. On the one hand, this somewhat smooths the situation, as it allows the sunspots to dump excess energy onto their neighbors. On the other hand, such a conglomerate is essentially a huge, unified reservoir, capable of accumulating energy for an exceptionally powerful explosion.

Mathematical modeling for such complex structures is practically powerless, especially considering that nine-tenths of this magnetic iceberg lies beneath the solar surface and is hidden from view. The situation could unfold according to virtually any scenario.

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Laboratory of Solar Astronomy,SRI RAS

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