The M8.1 flare tonight was accompanied by a plasma ejection that will reach Earth on Tuesday, December 9.

A double M-class flare, which occurred yesterday between 07:00 and 09:00 PM UTC, was accompanied by a fairly strong plasma ejection toward Earth. According to observations, the plasma cloud will reach our planet on Tuesday, December 9, approximately in the morning. The flare's peak power was M8.1, which corresponds to 81% of the lower limit of the highest X-class. In other words, the event, although not classified as an X-flare, was very close to that category.

Currently, there is no mathematical forecast for the new event, but a repeat of the powerful storm of mid-November is not expected. Then, on November 12-13, the most recent frontal impact of solar plasma on the planet occurred, following an X5.1 flare (the largest this year) and triggering a G4 magnetic storm. The current initial flare is not considered extremely strong, and it is most likely a G2-G3 event.

The plasma propagation model shows that the ejection had two particularly dense cores, whose trajectories, according to preliminary calculations, will pass by Earth—one to the left and one to the right. However, relying on such a favorable scenario is not yet advisable: during its 2.5-day flight to the planet, the cloud will undergo numerous internal changes, and the accuracy of current models in this regard is far from ideal.

The location of the flare's formation is absolutely phenomenal. Both the flare itself and the ejection toward Earth were produced by the same active region 4274 (new number 4299), which a month earlier, on November 11, generated the X5.1 flare mentioned above in the same region. Since then, this active center (which had previously, in October, caused several impacts on 3I/ATLAS) has completed almost a complete 27-day orbit around the Sun and is once again positioned opposite Earth. The region is almost completely destroyed, has a tiny area of about 200 millionths of a solar hemisphere, should have no significant energy at all, and, by and large, should have long since ceased to exist, yet none of this is stopping it.

This event is especially impressive given that the gigantic sunspot complex 4294-4296-4298 is currently located opposite the Earth in the Sun's southern hemisphere. It has a record-breaking size and area this year (over 2,000 sunspots at its peak). However, over the course of seven days in December, it did not produce a single flare, even at M1 level. This powerful group will remain in the zone of maximum geoeffective influence for about two more days—until approximately December 9th, when the plasma cloud ejected during the night will approach Earth.