The second M-flare of the year occurred on the Sun last night.
Active region No. 4341, which produced two very powerful explosions on the far side of the Sun in the first two weeks of the year, has emerged onto the visible side of the Sun and will be the main source of solar news in the coming days. Last night, the region recorded its second M-class flare of the year (level 4 on a 5-point scale, where category X is the highest). The peak emission occurred at 08:33 PM UTC. The precise measured intensity is M1.62. The first M-class flare of the year occurred in the same area three days ago.
The active region clearly operates in a mode of long pauses, used to accumulate energy, which is then released in separate powerful explosions. Major events, presumably of the highest X-class, occurred here on January 8 and 12. The word "presumably" refers to the fact that the explosions occurred beyond the edge of the Sun, and their energy could not be accurately measured. Based on the previous four-day interval between major flares, the next one can be expected within one to two days, although there's no physical basis for this other than the magic of numbers. The nighttime flare, despite being classified as category M, is not objectively strong and can be characterized as moderate. Its impact on Earth is ruled out.
Currently, the active region is cataloged as Beta-Gamma, close to the peak in flare danger, but still not the highest. It is expected that tomorrow or the day after it will be assigned the highest level—Beta-Gamma-Delta.
Laboratory of Solar Astronomy,SRI RAS
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