Calculating the motion of a plasma cloud ejected from the Sun

Given the gravity of the situation, the first very fast model is presented. As expected, it shows a borderline situation. According to the baseline scenario, the plasma cloud grazes the planet on the night of April 1st. Earth will then remain within the solar mass for 2 to 3 days. However, a very small deviation to the left will result in the mass of matter completely missing the planet, while a very small deviation to the right will result in the dense central portion of the ejecta striking the Earth.

Frankly, I feel very sorry for NOAA, which in this situation will have to issue a forecast for NASA and sign it off. It's a coin toss. We can only confidently say that the model will be recalculated until the very end. The main thing that could "save" the service in this situation is if the Sun ejects another large cloud tomorrow, this time precisely in the direction of Earth, which would remove absolutely all uncertainty.

For those not accustomed to this model: this is a top-down view of the planetary plane. Earth is the green circle. The Sun is in the center. On the right is a side view of the Earth. The rotating structure is the solar wind.